Here's Joe a few weeks ago, on Today:
"People that want to run think they can wait later"
OK. True that. And he already said that Iowa doesn't matter. And he knows he can win New Hampshire AND Florida easily - fluke of geography.
So... when will Scarborough announce?
My guess: Not until Fall 2011. After none of the announced GOP candidates gain traction, Scarborough rides in on his white horse, and says he has to do what's best for the party, and the nation.
And on to New Hampshire he'll go. And he'll win.
Here's Joe on Iowa, if you're interested...
"In the past, Iowa caucus, have selected a lot of people that didn’t move past Iowa. Mike Huckabee last time. The religious right has a very strong foothold on the Republican Party. You’ve now got Mitt Romney saying what John McCain said four years ago, I’m just going to skip it."
Here's GOP Iowa winners in contested races, and election result:
ReplyDeleteLoser, winner, loser, loser, loser
* 2008 - Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%)
* 2000 - George W. Bush (41%)[citation needed], Steve Forbes (30%)[citation needed], Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%), and Orrin Hatch (1%)
* 1996 - Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%), and Morry Taylor (1%)
* 1988 - Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%), Jack Kemp (11%), and Pete DuPont (7%)
* 1980 - George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%), and Bob Dole (2%)